Saturday 28 March 2009

Technical terms in stocks - A Basic Guide

The moment one decides to manage his funds deployed directly in Equities, it is imperative that one understands the risks and the various technical terms associated with it. Treat the exercise of Equity investments as part of learning your financial life. As in any walks of our lives, we are bound to make mistakes. But that should not deter from venturing out, sensibly, to learn and perhaps gain from this experience. One piece of advise is that do not stretch yourself financially or leverage or expose yourself to more than what you can afford. Always remember to have money in various asset classes before venturing into equities as an asset class.

After making a decision to commit certain funds, take time to learn some of the basic terms. The list here is not comprehensive but should be good enough to get you started.

Stock Exchange: The place where the stocks of companies are listed and transacted.

Market Capitalisation: This is the market value of the company at any given time based on the price of shares issued by the company. This is one of the main factors to be considered while selecting a stock in a particular exchange. Based on this, the stock on a particular exchange can be classified as Large, Medium and Small Cap. Small Cap stocks are more riskier compared to the Mid Cap which in turn is comparatively riskier than Large Cap.

Face Value: This is the basic value of the share issued by the company. Once the shares start trading in an exchange, usually the share price trades above this value. This value also determines how much money is paid when a dividend is declared. For example, consider a stock "A" that has Face Value of Rs.10. When a 50% dividend is declared, then Rs.5 (50% of Rs.10) will be paid out per share.

Book Value: This is the total value of the assets belonging to the company. If the company were to be liquidated, this value would be the likely amount generated. For technology stocks or telecommunication stocks, the ratio of Share Price to Book Value will be very high when compared to heavy industries. Sometimes, the Share Price/Book Value ratio is considered while selecting a stock.

Price: Market value of one unit of share traded in an exchange. This varies almost every second and is usually more than its Face Value. Usually, the company that is perceived, by the Market, to be good in the current or near term, commands a premium to the Face Value.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The amount earned for the investment of one share. This is very useful in finding out the earnings capacity of the company. The higher the value the better. For example, if Face Value of a stock "A" is Rs.10 and its EPS is 50, then it means that for every Rs.10 invested, the company is making Rs.50.

P/E: Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio) is the ratio between the Share Price at any given time to the established EPS. This ratio is one of the important factors in selecting a stock. Every sector or industry has an industry-wide P/E and the individual company's P/E are weighed against this. Generally, higher the P/E, greater is the risk or the company's prospects are exceptional as perceived by the Market. Some sectors inherently have high or low P/E. Before selecting a stock, it is worth checking both the industry P/E and the individual company's P/E.

Price/Book Value: This is the ratio between the Share Price to the established Book Value. For some sectors or industries, like heavy industries, this ratio could be useful in determining if the stock is worth the buy.

Dividend: The amount paid out as a percentage of the Face Value of the stock. A 50% dividend on a stock whose Face Value is Rs.10, will fetch Rs.5 as dividend per share.

Dividend Yield: Usually, calculated as a percentage of the most recently paid dividend to the current share price. If one wants to invest in historically high dividend yield stocks, then this could be one of the factors to look into consideration.

Announcement Date: The date on which the dividend, if any, was announced by the company. This announcement will also contain the Effective Date.

Effective Date: This is the date on which the shares should be in ones possession to get the dividend payout.

Weekend Bike Rides - 21/03

After a long semi-hibernation, it's a very nice feeling to get the bike out on wonderful sunny days. The weather today was fabulous with clear skies, very gentle winds and a balmy 15c. It was time to head to Southend. I've been to Southend a few times but all of those visits were following A123, A12 and A127. It was time to take a different route following A118, A406, A13 and A127.

Fuelled in Barking Tesco (as usual) and headed to Southend. I'm beginning to feel a lot more confident in the grip levels. A13 doesn't offer any opportunity to lean as it's a major A Road and hence the bends and curves are pretty much flat. But there are a few sections where there are long right and left handers which gives a good feel as the bike is always at a constant inclination to the road.

Compared to last weekend, I could see a lot of bikers on all sorts of bikes, some two-up, on this stretch of the road. Stayed on lower gears for quite a while on the 70-mph section to feel the power. It's a shame that within seconds the bike gets to 70mph whatever gear you are in, but it's fun.

All the time I was telling myself to practise all the good habits - look far ahead, keep checking the rear mirrors and look at the sides. You won't believe how quickly you can approach the vehicle in front or move within the lane so as to panic the vehicle in the adjacent lanes. Though I subscribe to the thought that first you got to be alive to enjoy the biking, I'd an opportunity to find out first hand what lack of concentration for a moment can do. Getting to the junction with A13/A127, I "suddenly" found that the cars ahead were moving at a snail's pace and I was still doing 70. Was this going to be one of those boyish moments when you dive ahead of the bike while braking? Not quite, had a quick look to my left, sat upright and went for the downshifts and more-than-gentle dab of the front (brake). It was not an emergency situation but exposed my lack of planning, perhaps carried away by the fantastic weather.

With such a nice balmy weather, you are certain to expect people flocking to the beaches. No wonder that traffic close to junction with A13/A127 was getting into a snail's pace. With only 2 narrow lanes, I stuck to the middle and stayed in the first for filtering. It was very nice of the cars to move out a little bit to let me through. I love revving the engine in such situations just to make sure the car drivers know that I'm there.

On my return, I practised a few stops in the Parking areas on A13. I wanted to feel the speed of the passing bikes and cars. The bikers who spotted waved at me, what a great community feeling. Leaving the Parking area, I was invariably in the first until I reached 70mph and the rev count just getting past 9k (still a long way from the limiter at 13k). The next time I'm out on my bike, I just want to record how sweet it is at 9k. When I was sharing about this weekend ride with one of my managers, who is also a keen biker, he joked that I don't need this bike to get to 9k. Unless you do illegal speed limits, or on a race track, I can't see how one can get past 9k on my bike. But to me, it's the howl that counts more than the speed.

It's almost unbelievable to have had two weeks of sunshine in Spring. Can't wait for the next weekend ride, just hoping that it doesn't spit rain.

Thursday 26 March 2009

Financial Technical Analysis

In this blog entry, I'd like to share my personal thoughts about the financial technical analyses produced by various stock brokerages and fund houses and experts. I don't have any personal grudge against them - they are doing a professional job for their companies. Should the traders and investors read these analyses and take the contents by the face value - my opinion would be No. As the name suggests these are analyses only and are widely variying in their nature. More often than not, the report or outlook of a company keeps changing over time. Do your own research and act on your own rather than following the reports blindly.

Every stock brokerage and fund house have in-house technical analysts who sift through various financial reasearch reports and produce technical analyses. There are television channels that are dedicated to financial news. Invariably these channels provide a running commentary on the performance of various stocks in a trading session. My personal opinion is do not read too much into the analyses produced by these so called experts and analysts. If one were to read a technical report produced by all, or at the least some, of these brokerages, one is very likely to be perplexed.

There is certainly no harm in reading the research reports about the companies. But what I'd personally insist is that the individual trader/investor make the decision rather than take the tip of an analyst. The moment one decide to step into equities asset class, the responsibility is firmly with the individual to look after the funds. You may make mistakes in choosing a wrong stock or entering at a wrong time, but at least you know that you have not fallen to the tip of some analyst.

The other point to consider while taking the research reports by their face value is how good they are for the (prevailing) market conditions. Are you reading these as an investor or a trader or a "day jobber"? The reports may be giving their price target for the next one or two financial years. If the analysts are providing tips for "short-term" trading, invariably they all mention the price target albeit the target date.

If one were to closely follow these analysts, one can find that they keep changing their price outlook and targets almost on a daily basis. If the analysts are horribly wrong, they may not be seen for days together. So why take their tips seriously.

Always remember that Markets behave the way they like. If the Markets were that predictable all the time, then everybody who got into the Equities asset class would have been mega millionaires. So read the research reports, listen to the analysts but make the decision yourself - it is your money.

Equities as an Asset Class

I'd like to share some basics in share trading and investing. Some of these have been taken from several media and some are my personal opinion. I'd like to strongly insist that you do not follow these blindly and do your own proper research before trading and investing in shares. The blog is intended to those who want to act as fund managers to their own funds. Some of the information is written from an Indian market perspective. I welcome your comments or remarks.

Identify the purpose:
Identify the purpose as why you want to enter into the equities asset class. For example, you want to create a nest for your retirement, for providing higher education to your children, build a dream house or just want to increase the wealth.

Risk and reward:
Equities as an asset class is inherently risky. It is possible to loose all or part of the money you have put in equities. But there is also the possibility of rewards that come with the risk. This is the most important aspect one has to take into account before getting into this asset class.

Funds allocation and time frame:
Consider how much amount you can comfortably allocate to this asset class. Also consider the time frame that you can be sure of not relying on this allocated funds. There are numerous scenarios that could be considered but for illustration purposes let us consider the following scenarios.
Scenario 1: Person A is comfortable in committing Rs.100,000 and does not need this money within the next 3 years. This money can be carefully traded/invested in equities asset class with a good chance of beating the returns offered by standard bank interest rates. The time frame allows opportunities to meet reasonably set targets and also doesn't force the individual to make hasty decisions should the market doesn't behave as expected.

Scenario 2: Person A is comfortable in commiting Rs.100,000 but requires this money without fail within the next 3 months. It is quite risky to enter into equities asset class for such a short time frame. It may be better to keep the money parked in a bank account.

Scenario 3: Person A can allocate Rs.100,000 towards equities but may require the allocated funds with very short notice, say, a week or a few days. It may not be adviseable to enter into equities if there is uncertainity about the time frame for which the funds can be allocated.

Trade or invest:
There is widespread support for both trading and investing. Personally, I’d call money parked in shares for more than a year as an investment and anything less than that as trading. There are many books on financial investments and one can read these books at their own leisure. My personal opinion is that if one can identify a potential multi-bagger (means the share price increases several fold in the long term), then staying invested for years together could be very good.

Lost Opportunity:
As anything in life, do not worry about the lost opportunity to make money or minimise the losses. Treat it as part of your learning experience and try not to repeat.

Setting Targets:
Set reasonable targets for the money allocated in equities. As a minimum, this target should beat the official inflation figures by at least 10%.

Terminology:
Get used to the terminology. Understand what is m-cap, P/E ratio, EPS, Face Value, Book Value, Dividend, Dividend Yield, Price/Book Value, Dividend Announcement Date, Dividend Effective Date, etc.

M-cap groups:
The companies are grouped as large, medium and small based on their Market Capitalisation. Understand the risk/reward associated with the companies in these groups before committing the funds.

Do Research:
The reason why you buy shares of a particular company is because you want to share its profits. So do good research about the company. Some of the things to consider are: owner(s) or promoters, directors, companies past performance, future plans, their financial position, how they compare against their peers, etc.

Investments - Asset Classes

We work to earn for a good living. A good living is relative to every individual. Irrespective of that relativity, everyone should subscribe to the thought of making an effort to save a portion, however tiny it may be. There are various ways to save the cash and build a portfolio suitable to the individual in various asset classes. These asset classes could be cash savings in a bank account, mutual funds, pension contributions, liquidity account, immoveable assets, gold, art, etc. Allocating funds to any of these asset classes depends upon the personal circumstances of an individual and should be carefully consulted with someone who has good financial expertise and is aware of the individual's needs. I'm not going to provide the ratios for funds allocation to these various asset classes. I'll be giving some basic tips on considering some of these assets classes.

Liquid Assets:
Those asset classes in which cash is readily available can be termed as liquid assets. These could be liquidity accounts, cash savings accounts or current accounts.
Liquidity Account:
Maintain a bank account which pays some decent interest and allows withdrawal of money, any number of times, without any penalty. This account will provide the liquidity should something go wrong with your regular source of income, that may be your job or business. Depending upon the nature of your job or business or industry, it may be adviseable to have at least 6 months of living expenses in this account. Do not count this money as part of your investment(s). The sole purpose of this account is to provide you the liquidity in an emergency. The monthly living expenses should be comprehensive that should include any regular, weekly, monthly or quarterly outgoing. Examples are rent/mortage, loan repayment, subscription/membership fee, health insurance, vehicle expenses, etc.

Cash Savings Account:
Regularly save cash in a savings account that pays good interest. This should be part of your long-term investments. Interest rates on savings are subjected to change. Weigh the options of parking in a fixed-term savings account and a non-fixed-term savings account. More often than not, the returns on such accounts do not beat the inflation. This is the least risky investment. Having said that, should the bank go bust, only a pre-determined amount would be returned to investor. For example, by current law, banks operating in India covers only the first Rs.200,000 in an account per person per bank.

Semi-liquid Assets:
Those asset classes that are not ready cash but can easily be converted to cash can be termed as semi-liquid assets. These could be bullion, gold/silver/platinum jewellery, shares, etc. As the value of these assets is subject to international market forces, there is an inherent risk to these asset classes.
Bullion:
Silver, Gold, Platinum can be treated as semi-liquid assets as they can be quite easily sold to convert to cash. The value of these vary on a daily basis.

Jewellery:
Jewellery made of precious metals can be easily sold to convert to cash. Again the value of these vary on a daily basis. There is always a chance for loss of value while selling jewellery.

Shares:
Shares can be easily converted to cash in the equity markets as long as the company that issued the shares has not gone bust and is still trading on the stock exchange on which the company shares were bought.

Immoveable Assets:
Real estate, residential/commercial properties form some of the immoveable assets. Over a long period of time frame, say, 10 or 20 years, this asset class could give good returns on the investment. Again the value of these are subject to various local forces.

Sunday 15 March 2009

Weekend Bike Rides - 15/03

It's been a while since I took my bike, Yamaha FZ1-SA, for jolly weekend rides. From December to February, I took it out only on a handful of occassions, mainly to have a feel for the bike and the grip that was available. This being my first winter weather riding, it was all new. I have heard and read about the lack of grip, but feeling it first-hand was something scary and special.

With the arrival of Spring and a better weather, it was time to go on a jolly weekend ride. The weather was not bad, about 12c, but there was more than gentle cross-winds. Fuelled and checked tyre pressure, as usual, in Barking Tesco.

Took to A406 Westbound, the North Circular Road, at Barking junction. Going over the flyover at Ilford, I could feel the strong cross-winds, the one thing that I hate. Good that I did some winter weather riding, I was already feeling a lot comfortable with the grip, as I'd make a comparison between the grip levels. Onto M11 slip road, for the first time in months, I was able to lean the bike with some confidence. Hitting the motorway, I was able to get some proper heat into the tyres by dropping to lower gears and ride on a higher-rev range. I got to tell you how sweet it sounds when you get over 7k revs. If you are on a motorway and doing about 70mph (112 kmph) in 6th gear, you hardly hit 5k revs. But drop a couple of gears and you find the revs going about 7k and that is sweet.

Now to the main riding bit, Harlow to Maldon. Off M11, took the exit to A414 heading to Harlow. I love the entry and exit to slip roads as I'd practise some serious downshifts, braking, and acceleration. Started my run near Harlow Town Centre heading towards Maldon. The roundabouts in these out-of-town places are amongst my favourites too. It gives you the opportunity to flick the bike and a chance to accelerate hard in the first gear. The route itself is not too demanding and most of it is 50mph (80kmph). There are some gentle sweeps that doesn't warrant too much of a lean, unless you are doing illegal speeds. I was able to spot only a few riders and acknowledged them with a gentle head-nod. The nodding of your head is one of those wonderful moments that make you feel happy, at least for me, I suppose.

For most of the section from Harlow to Chelmsford, I was riding in 3rd gear to enjoy the power-band through the bends. There are a few roundabouts in this section where you can practise some nice left-right flips. Exiting these roundabouts I always stay in the first gear and get over 7k rev range to enjoy the sweetness of the engine. The traffic on this section wasn't bad, I always had a free space at the front and back, to practise some acceleration and downshifts to the roundabouts. Exiting one of the roundabouts, you get national speed limit of 70mph, and this is where I love to open the throttle. On a previous visit on this route, I did a 1st gear 60mph which took me just over 9k revs. I was hoping if I'd a clear road in front of me, then I could try it. Luckily, the road was almost clear and I'd a chance to go over 9k revs in the first gear. The roar of the engine in first gear when it gets to about 9k engine is something I'd love to hear it from the roadside as a pedastrian. I stayed it on a while before upshifting.

On these out-of-town roads, some car drivers are very considerate. When they see a motorcycle they tend to stay to their left and provide you enough room to get past them. If there is a gaggle of cars, you could see most of them moving to their left in a sync and that is a beautiful sight for any biker.

The 17-mile section from Harlow to Chelmsford was gone in a pleasurely ride, taking the occasional scenaries in my stride. On my return, I took to some city riding from Romford to Ilford on A118. This gave me the opportunity to practise slow riding and filtering.

I did 75-miles on this ride and had a chance to practise almost everything. I'm awaiting a free one-day BikeSafe training with Met police. I did a similar one last year and it was so helpful. Another one of these training sessions would help me get assessed for another season of safe riding.